CC SR 20200121 05 - Vulnerability Assessment
CITY COUNCIL MEETING DATE: 01/21/2020
AGENDA REPORT AGENDA HEADING: Regular Business
AGENDA DESCRIPTION:
Consideration and possible action to receive and file a report and presentation on the
City of Rancho Palos Verdes Vulnerability Assessment
RECOMMENDED COUNCIL ACTION:
(1) Receive and file a report and presentation on the City of Rancho Palos Verdes
Vulnerability Assessment, prepared by the South Bay Cities Council of
Governments, related to climate adaptation planning.
FISCAL IMPACT: None
Amount Budgeted: N/A
Additional Appropriation: N/A
Account Number(s): N/A
ORIGINATED BY: Octavio Silva, Interim Deputy Director of Community Development
REVIEWED BY: Terry Rodrigue, Interim Director of Community Development
APPROVED BY: Ara Mihranian, AICP, Interim City Manager
ATTACHED SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS:
A. City of Rancho Palos Verdes Vulnerability Assessment (page A-1)
BACKGROUND AND DISCUSSION:
Since 2008, the South Bay Cities Council of Governments (SBCCOG) has worked with
member cities, including the City of Rancho Palos Verdes, on climate action planning
for the South Bay region. As part of these efforts, SBCCOG assisted South Bay cities
with the preparation of individual climate action plans, which provide a description of
actions, policies, programs, and cost-effective projects that a city can take to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions. In 2017, the City of Rancho Palos Verdes adopted its
Emissions Reduction Action Plan (ERAP) with the assistance of SBCCOG. A copy of
the ERAP is available for review by clicking here.
As a continuation of its climate action planning efforts, SBCCOG set out to prepare a
Sub-Regional Climate Adaptation Plan. While individual climate action plans identify the
greatest sources of greenhouse gases and strategies to reduce emissions, the Sub-
1
Regional Climate Adaptation Plan will allow cities to assess and mitigate the extent to
which the climate will negatively impact South Bay communities. In September 2019,
SBCCOG adopted the Sub-Regional Climate Adaptation Plan, which can be viewed by
clicking here.
Senate Bill No. 379 requires all cities to address climate adaptation and resiliency
strategies in the safety elements of their general plans upon the next revision of their
local hazard mitigation plan. Specifically, SB 379 requires local jurisdictions to conduct a
vulnerability assessment that identifies areas throughout the City at risk from climate
change impacts.
To support its member cities, SBCCOG conducted a robust vulnerability assessment for
the sub-region to educate city staff and the general public on the potential impacts of
climate change on critical facilities and residents’ well-being. More specifically, each
member city received a vulnerability assessment that included the following:
1. Climate projections
2. Information on the types of structures and populations that will be exposed
and/or sensitive to various climate hazards
3. Maps that identify geographic areas of highest risk
City of Rancho Palos Verdes Vulnerability Assessment
As part of the above-mentioned process, in December 2018, Staff began working with
SBCCOG representatives on the preparation of a City-specific vulnerability assessment.
The Safety Element of the City’s Updated General Plan currently includes goals and
policies related to addressing climate change adaptations and vulnerabilities in the City.
The SBCCOG City-specific vulnerability assessment would augment the City’s General
Plan by further analyzing climate projections and impacts to critical City infrastructure
such as utility, transportation and energy facilities.
In September 2019, the City was presented with a draft copy of a vulnerability
assessment (Attachment A), which can also be viewed by clicking here. The first part of
the document describes climate projections for the City that include but are not limited
to, temperature, precipitation, wind, floods, and wildfire. Of particular note, the
SBBCOG’s climate projections indicate that the average temperatures for the City (71.6
degrees) are expected to increase 4 to 7 degrees by the late century (2070-2099).
The second part of the document assesses structural and social vulnerabilities because
of climate projections. Structural vulnerability assesses impacts to critical City facilities
because of factors such as, but not limited to, fire, flooding and sea-level rise. The
document also assesses social vulnerability, which overlays sensitive populations (i.e.
seniors) throughout the City with hazard-prone areas (i.e. urban heat island hotspots
and flood-prone areas) to assess potential risk to people in the community. Through the
assessment, SBCCOG determined that the City of Rancho Palos Verdes is uniquely
vulnerable to wildfire events, as majority of the City is located within a Very High Fire
Hazard Severity Zone. In addition, the assessment found that the City’s population over
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age 65 would be most impacted by a wildfire event, as challenges with mobility may
impede their ability to quickly evacuate in an emergency. The SBBCOG recommends
that continued efforts be made to address such impacts through a mult i-city task force
(the City currently participates in the Peninsula Emergency Preparedness Taskforce
((PEPT)) consisting of all four Peninsula cities). The assessment also determined that
sea cliff erosion poses a threat to residential properties and sensitive natural habitat that
line the sea cliff’s edge, and suggests that the City work with interested parties,
including property owners and scientific experts, to develop strategies to address the
impacts of sea cliff erosion.
Next Steps
SBCCOG representatives will be in attendance at the January 21 , 2020, City Council
meeting to provide a presentation on the City’s vulnerability assessment and discuss
the development of adaptation strategies to enable the City to mitigate its climate risks.
Once developed, both the adaptation strategies and the City’s vulnerability assessment
can be included into the City’s ERAP at a later date and under the City Council’s
direction.
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City of Rancho Palos Verdes Vulnerability Assessment
South Bay Cities Council of Governments
September 10, 2019
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Table of Contents
Introduction………………… 3
Part 1: Climate Projections… 4
• Temperature
• Precipitation
• Wind
• Sea Level Rise
• Flood
• Drought
• Wildfire
Part 2: Risk Assessment……. 14
• Structural Vulnerability
o Flood
o Sea Level Rise
• Social Vulnerability
o Heat
o Flood
Conclusion, Recommendations, and Next Steps …….. 28
Appendix A: Social Vulnerability Map Atlas……….... 30
Appendix B: Bluespot Analysis—Buildings at Risk … 38
Appendix C: Cliff Erosion Maps …………………….. 39
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Introduction
The Vulnerability Assessment was developed by the South Bay Cities
Council of Governments (SBCCOG) on behalf of the City of Rancho
Palos Verdes (RPV) to educate city staff and the general public on the
potential impacts of climate change on of critical facilities and
residents’ well-being. Additionally, this document will help the City
comply with California Senate Bill 379, which requires all cities to
address climate adaptation and resiliency strategies in their general
plan upon the next revision of their local hazard mitigation plan.
Specifically, SB 379 requires local jurisdictions to conduct a
vulnerability assessment that identifies areas at risk from climate
change impacts. This vulnerability assessment, in accordance with the
Office of Planning and Research’s guidelines, adheres to the
framework provided by the California Adaptation Planning Guide,
and provides the City of RPV with:
1. Climate projections from the Cal-Adapt tool
2. Information on the types of structures and populations that
will be exposed and/or sensitive to various climate hazards
3. Maps that identify geographic areas of highest risk
Plan Alignment
Aligning goals and actions across local hazard mitigation plans
(LHMP), adaptation plans, general plans, and other planning documents allows mitigation and
adaptation efforts to be integrated into local jurisdictions’ everyday planning. The City of RPV
adopted their Emissions Reduction Action Plan (ERAP) in 2017 and updated their LHMP and
General Plan in 2016 and 2018, respectively. This document is meant to build off and bolster the
vulnerability assessment provided in the 2016 LHMP, with an emphasis on hazards that are
exacerbated by climate change. This assessment, along with the LHMP, will provide a baseline
for the City of RPV to plan, implement and track the progress of adaptation strategies
complementary to those adopted in the City’s ERAP.
CA Senate Bill 379…
California Senate Bill
379 (adopted 2015)
requires all cities and
counties to include
climate adaptation
and resiliency
strategies in the
safety elements of
their general plans
upon the next revision
beginning January
2017.
The bill requires the
climate adaptation
update to include a
set of goals, policies,
and objectives for
their communities
based on a
vulnerability
assessment, as well as
implementation
measures.
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Part 1: Climate Projections
As part of the technical work, the SBCCOG recorded future projections for temperature,
precipitation, and wind from Cal-Adapt, an interactive, publicly accessible web-based
application that provides easy-to-understand visualizations of locally relevant climate related
risks. Scientific reports and planning guidance documents are also referenced to determine the
extent of sea level rise and how climate-related hazards including floods, wildfire, and drought
will change in frequency and severity by 2050 and 2100.
Projections are based on the standardized climate change scenarios
from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Representative Concentrated Pathways (RCP): 1) The “mitigating”
scenario (RCP 4.5) and 2) the “business as usual” scenario (RCP
8.5). Guidance from the State Office of Planning and Research
recommends local agencies and jurisdictions utilize the business as usual (RCP 8.5) for planning
out to 2050 and utilize a risk management approach for the selection of emissions scenarios past
2069.
Temperature
Consistent with the results of the Los Angeles Regional 4th Climate Assessment, average
temperatures for the City of RPV are expected to increase 3-4° F by the mid-century, and 4-7° F
by the late century, depending on the emissions scenario (Table 1).
Table 1: Average Temperature Projections for the City of RPV
Figure 1 provides annual averages of observed and projected maximum temperature values for
the City of RPV under the business as usual (RCP 8.5) scenario. The gray line (1950-2005) is
City of RPV
Historical
Annual Mean
(1960-1989)
Projected
Annual Mean
for 2020-2049
(RCP 8.5)
Projected
Annual Mean
for 2040-2069
(RCP8.5)
Projected
Annual Mean
for 2040-2069
(RCP4.5)
Projected
Annual Mean
for 2070-2099
(RCP8.5)
Projected
Annual Mean
for 2070-2099
(RCP4.5)
Degrees Fahrenheit
(°F) 71.6 73.9 75.6 74.5 78.3 75.5
Representative Concentrated
Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse
gas concentration trajectory or
forecast.
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observed data. The colored lines (2006-2010) are projections from four downscaled climate
models 1 – called Localized Constructed Analogs, or LOCA models. These models were selected
by California’s Climate Action Team Research Working Group as the most relevant for the State
of California and used in the California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment. Projected future
climate from these four models can be described as producing:
• A warm/dry simulation (HadGEM2-ES)
• A cooler/wetter simulation (CNRM-CM5)
• An average simulation (CanESM2)
• A model simulation that couples the atmosphere and ocean general circulation models
together with the land and sea ice modules (MIROC5)
Figure 1: Average Temperature Projections for the City of RPV
1 The newly developed LOCA downscaling method estimates finer-scale (6km) climate detail using systematic historical effects on topography
on local weather patterns.
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A prolonged period of abnormally hot weather is
defined as a heat wave. Heat waves can have an
impact on both the environment including habitat
and public health. Research and studies have provided evidence that the second warm night -
when the interior of households is expected to rise due to outdoor temperatures 1 - have an
increased negative effect on morbidity and mortality. In addition, the impacts of heat waves are
geographically variable in nature as local populations adapt to the prevailing climate via
physiological, behavioral, cultural, and technological
adaptations.2 For this Vulnerability Assessment, an
extreme heat day and warm night is defined as “when the
maximum temperature exceeds the 98th historical
percentile of maximum temperatures based on daily
temperature maximum data between 1961 and 1990”.3
The City of RPV will experience an increase in average annual heat in a variety of ways,
including increased number of extreme heat days and warmer summer evenings (Table 2). The
number of extreme heat days is projected to rise through the year 2100, where the average year
could include 15 extreme heat days under a “business as usual” emissions scenario.4
Table 2: Historic and Projected Average Number of Extreme Heat Days and Warm Nights
Precipitation
Most climate scientists agree that precipitation in the Greater Los Angeles Area is highly
variable from year to year. As a result, there is some ambiguity around what the effect climate
change will have on precipitation levels throughout the South Bay. From years 1961-1990 the
sub-region received an average of 12.9 inches of rainfall per year.5 Projections indicate there will
City of RPV Threshold
Temp (°F)
Observed
(1960-1989)
Projected for
2020-2049
(RCP 8.5)
Projected for
2040-2069
(RCP8.5)
Projected for
2040-2069
(RCP4.5)
Projected for
2070-2099
(RCP8.5)
Projected for
2070-2099
(RCP4.5)
Extreme Heat Days 92.1 4 5 7 5 15 7
Warm Nights 66.8 4 15 30 17 68 25
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be only small changes in average precipitation (Table 3); however dry and wet extremes are both
expected to increase in the future. These extremes will vary from one year to another with wetter
winter conditions offset by the drier spring conditions. By the late-21st century, the wettest day of
the year is expected to increase in the sub-region about 20%.
Table 3: Average Precipitation Projections for the City of RPV
City of RPV Historical
Annual Mean
for 1961-1990
(Observed)
Projected for
2020-2049
(RCP 8.5)
Projected for
2040-2069
(RCP 8.5)
Projected for
2040-2069
(RCP 4.5)
Projected for
2070-2099
(RCP 8.5)
Projected for
2070-2099
(RCP 4.5)
Precipitation
(inches)
12.5 13.4 12.9 12.8 14.9 12.9
Extreme precipitation events are days during a water year (Oct-Sep) with 2-day rainfall totals
above an extreme threshold of 1.09 inches.2 The South Bay is projected to experience
approximately 2-3 more extreme precipitation events per year by end-of-century under a
business as usual scenario (2070-2099, RCP 8.5). Figure 2 shows estimated intensity (“Return
Level”) of extreme precipitation events-- which are exceeded on average once every 20 years--
and how it increases in a warming climate over historical, mid-century and late-century time
periods. Data is shown for a 6x6 km grid cell for RPV under the business as usual scenario (RCP
8.5). The gray line (1950-2005) is observed data. The colored lines (2006-2010) are projections
from the four downscaled climate models (LOCA):
2 The extreme threshold sets the conditions for which a precipitation event is considered “extreme”. The threshold is set to the lowest annual
maximum precipitation accumulation in the historical record (1961-1990).
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Figure 2: Projected Intensity of Precipitation Events in RPV
Wind
Globally, wind speeds have fallen by as much as 25% since the 1970s.6 This phenomenon,
termed ‘stilling’ is a consequence of rising global
temperatures; air movements are powered by
differences in temperature between two locations.
The bigger the difference between warm and cold
air, the stronger the wind. One effect of global
warming is a smaller global temperature differential.
In the South Bay, Santa Ana winds carry high-density air from a higher elevation down under the
force of gravity. The Santa Ana winds blow in an offshore direction steered by the topography
of the coastal hills and valleys. These winds are an important feature of the region’s weather
variability, and their high speed and low relative humidity can drive destructive wildfires.
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In urban areas like the South Bay, a reduction in wind could contribute to increased smog and
compound heat-related impacts. On the other hand, over the next 20 years higher projected wind
speeds suggest a potential risk of windstorms that can disrupt power distribution among other
adverse impacts. Table 4 highlights how daily average wind speeds are expected to change for
the City based on 6x6 km grid-cell projections.
Table 4: Projected Daily Average Wind Speeds
Map ID
(Figure 3)
South Bay City
Historical Average
Daily Wind Speed
(m/s)
1950-2005
Projected
Wind Speed
2006-2039
(RCP 8.5)
Projected
Wind Speed
2040-2069
(RCP 8.5)
Projected
Wind Speed
2040-2069
(RCP 4.5)
Projected
Wind Speed
2070-2099
(RCP 8.5)
Projected
Wind Speed
2070-2099
(RCP 4.5)
E West RPV 3.52 7.16 2.19 2.84 4.73 7.80
J East RPV 3.27 5.10 1.52 2.54 3.19 5.82
Figure 3: Wind Projection Grid Cell IDs
Sea Level Rise
Sea levels are projected to continue to rise
in the future, but to what extent varies
largely on different emissions scenarios
and uncertainty to the extent warming will
have on climate systems. Authors of the
4th Climate Assessment suggest that sea
levels could be as high as 2.87m (9.4 ft) by
2100.
The California Coastal Commission has
released Guidance (2018) on how to assess
and address sea-level rise risks in local
communities. This guidance is consistent
with previous direction from the Ocean
Protection Council (2018) on sea-level rise
scenarios to use in planning and development by coastal communities and state agencies.
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Specifically, the Coastal Commission recommends “all communities evaluate the impacts from
the medium-high risk aversion scenario.”
Local governments should also include the extreme risk aversion scenario (Table 5) to evaluate
the vulnerability of planned or existing assets that have little to no adaptive capacity, would be
irreversibly destroyed or significantly costly to repair, and/or would have considerable public
health, public safety or environmental impacts should that level of sea level rise occur.
Table 5: Sea Level Rise Probabilistic Projections for City of Los Angeles
While only advisory, if a
community wants to
construct in the coastal
zone – whether a
community has a Local
Coastal Program (LCP) or
if they are going directly
to the Coastal Commission
for a Coastal Development
Permit – the City will need
to get approval from the
Coastal Commission,
which will in turn expect the city to have considered medium-high-risk sea-level scenarios
consistent with Commission guidance documents. Therefore, the SBCCOG assessed the
potential impact of medium-high and extreme risk aversion scenarios for the City of RPV (see
SLR risk assessment on p. 22).
Floods
Current modeling is limited in its ability to produce quantitative estimates of the effect of climate
change on flood hazard risks; however, an understanding of the basic features of climate change
allows for a qualitative assessment of impacts on flood-related hazards.
Source: Ocean Protection Council Sea Level Rise Guidance Document, 2018
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High frequency flood events (e.g. 10-year floods) will likely increase with a changing climate.7
Along with reductions in the amount of the snowpack and accelerated snowmelt, scientists
project greater storm intensity, resulting in more direct runoff and flooding.8 With the added
potential increases in the frequency and intensity of wildfires due to climate change, there is
potential for more floods following fire, which will increase sediment loads and impact water
quality.9 As the flow of water and landscape changes, what is currently considered a 100-year
flood may strike more often, leaving many communities already exposed to flood hazards at
greater risk.10
El Nino
El Nino and La Nina are opposite phases of what is known as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation
(ENSO) cycle. The ENSO cycle describes the fluctuations in wind patterns, sea-surface
temperatures, and ocean atmosphere interactions across the Equatorial Pacific. El Nino events
are characterized by higher than normal sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central
tropical Pacific Ocean and can result in higher rainfall for the California coast.11
El Nino has a major impact on the weather and flooding conditions of the Pacific coast. During
El Nino winters, storm tracks often dip further south than their normal track and directly impact
Southern California with more frequent storms, increased chances of heavy rainfall and higher
wave heights with accompanying floods, landslides, and coastal erosion.
A scientific paper published in Nature in 2014 used 20 climate models to assess changes in El
Nino behavior assuming climate change over the next 100 years 12. They found a consistent
pattern across most models, doubling the frequency of intense El Nino events. The probability of
a 1/20-year intense El Nino (such as those in 1982−83 and 1997−98) will increase roughly to
1/10 years. Although there remains much uncertainty over the effects of climate change on
climate variability such as El Nino, the most damaging events in California will likely be driven
by El Nino storms in combination with high tides.
Tropical Cyclones and Storms
There is a low frequency of tropical cyclones making landfall in Southern California due to low
seawater temperatures and north-westward track.13 Such cyclones usually require warm water
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(>26.5°C; 80°F), but the coastal waters in California rarely rise above 24°Celsius (75°F).
Another reason for the low probability of hurricanes in California is the general northwestward
or westward direction of tropical cyclones, steering them away from land. Climate change may
affect the frequency, intensity, and location of tropical cyclones. A study by Mendelsohn et al.
(2012) used four different models to estimate tropical cyclone tracks in the current and future
climate.14 They observed increasing storm power in the northeast Pacific consistently over the
four models, which may indicate increased future storm activity in Southern California; however,
there are currently few studies that have investigated the effect of climate change on tropical
cyclones and storms for this area.
Drought
Most of the imported water used in the City of RPV ultimately comes from snowmelt originating
in the Sierra Nevada range. Researchers at UCLA found that more precipitation will likely fall as
rain rather than snow and accumulated snow will melt sooner than in modern history due to
elevated temperatures.15 As a result, runoff will occur earlier in the season and in greater
volumes, making capture for use much more difficult in the future.16 Reduced winter
precipitation levels and warmer temperatures have greatly decreased the size of the Sierra
Nevada snowpack (the volume of accumulated snow), which in turn makes less fresh water
available for communities throughout California. By the end of this century, California’s Sierra
Nevada snowpack is projected to experience a 48-65% loss, corresponding to emissions
scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively, from the historical (1981-2000) April average.
Continued decline in the Sierra Nevada snowpack volume is expected, which may lead to lower
volumes of available imported water. Adding to this situation, external factors such as increased
demand on imported supplies outside of the Los Angeles region will likely amplify the problem
and lessen the dependability of imported water sources to the region. The City of RPV via Cal
Water Service Co. imports approximately 75% of its water supply, though the City has taken
steps to decrease their reliance on imported water by investing more aggressively in local water
sources including groundwater (19%) and recycled water (6%).17
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Wildfire
A wildfire is an uncontrolled fire spreading through vegetative fuels and is one of the hazards in
the subregion that poses a substantial risk to life and property. In addition to this direct threat,
smoke released during an event can have a detrimental effect on air quality. As shown in Figure
4, most of the City of RPV is designated as a Very High Fire Severity Zone (Cal-Fire
designation). Figure 4 shows the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection’s (CDF)
Fire Threat layer, which combines expected fire frequency and fire behavior with proximity to
urban areas to create threat classes
ranging from moderate to extreme.
Wildfires may start for any number of
reasons, including arson, human
error, or lightning, irrespective of
climate change. Throughout the
western United States there is a
strong relationship between drought
conditions and fire activity.18
However, in Southern California
during the twentieth century, there
was a surprisingly weak relation
between drought and area burned,19
but length of drought played a role in
extending the fire season.20 Since the
temperature/humidity threshold
required for a wildfire event is met
every year in Southern California,
global warming is less responsible for
increased fire frequency compared to
other considerations (such as
population growth) in the South Bay.
Figure 4: Wildfire Threat, City of RPV
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One of the difficulties in sorting out the role of climate in driving fire is that fires started by
humans play a major role in the bioregion and complicate the interpretation. For example,
drought indices are closely correlated to the area burned during the twentieth century. Human
population growth also parallels these changes in area burned, and increased fires started by
humans are likely a major contributor to the late twentieth century increase in burning. It is
estimated that humans account for over 98% of all wildfires in the lower foothills and coastal
zone.21 With increasing population growth, fire suppression efforts have worked hard to keep up
with increasing numbers of fires; however, twentieth-century fires have been more abundant in
Southern coastal California than historically was the case. 22
Part 2: Risk Assessment
This preliminary vulnerability assessment defines and assesses risk as a function of a hazard
occurrence, exposure of structures and people within a hazard zone, and sensitivity of a
population to to climate impacts. The goal of the risk assessment is to identify areas where there
is an intersection of a hazard-prone area (i.e. flood prone area, or hotspot) with potentially
exposed facilities and sensitive populations.
Critical facilities are essential to the health and welfare of the whole population and are
especially important following hazard events. The potential consequence of losing them are so
great that they should be carefully inventoried. The Structural Vulnerability section of this risk
assessment overlays critical facilities and buildings with hazard prone areas (from flooding and
sea level rise) to assess potential risk to structures.
Sensitive populations are those that may be more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change
than others, and have an increased likelihood of experiencing morbidity or mortality during a
climate-hazard event. The Social Vulnerability section of this assessment overlays sensitive
populations with hazard prone areas (hotspots and flood-prone areas) to assess potentital risk to
people.
By overlaying hazard-prone areas with facilities, structures, and sensitive populations, the City
of RPV is identifying priority areas for adaptation measures to be implemented. In doing so, the
City of RPV is pursuing equitable adaptation planning, or the practice of prioritizing investment
and action in the most vulnerable areas.
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Structural Vulnerability
Critical facilities are community assets that ensure the safe and effective operation of basic
governmental services. In some instances, critical facillities help to provide key services, such as
public safety or utilities. Other critical facilities, such as administrative centers, are necessary to
maintain government operations during a disaster and can help coordinate response and recovery
activities.
The SBCCOG, with guidance from the City of RPV, identified critical facilities in Figure 5, 6,
and 7.
Figure 5 includes the following categories of critical facilities:
• Government/Public Facilities including public schools, government offices including
City Halls, police and fire departments
• Healthcare Facilities including hospitals, medical centers, emergency and disaster offices,
red cross centers, and health clinics
• Hazardous Facilities including facilities that receive hazardous waste for treatment,
storage or disposal, and Environmental Protection Agency designated Superfund Sites.
Figure 6 maps all energy facilities and supporting infrastructure including oil fields, electrical
substations, power plants, natural gas stations and transmission circuits.
Figure 7 maps water facilities and supporting infrastructure including water lines (force mains
and gravity mains), pump stations, MS4 outfalls and water treatment facilities.
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Figure 5: Government, Healthcare and Hazardous Facilities
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Figure 6: Energy Facilities and Supporting Infrastructure
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Figure 7: Water Facilities and Supporting Infrastructure
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Flood Risk
The flood risk in the City of RPV is limited and largely undetermined. The City of RPV is not
located near any major waterways of
the Los Angeles Basin, and
therefore has largely been free of
significant flood events. While
there are several critical facilities
located within a FEMA
designated (2018) flood zone,
mapped in Figure 8, the Zone D
designation represents areas for
where there is possible but
undetermined flood hazards.
Further hydrological assessments
should be conducted to better
understand the risk of localized
flooding in the case of extreme
precipitation events.
Urban Flooding- Cloudburst
Events
Urban flooding is caused by
extreme precipitation events, or
cloudbursts, wherein rain falls on impervious surfaces and overwhelms local storm water
drainage capacity. Urban flooding has little to do with bodies of water and occurs in places that
are well outside of mapped floodplains. To
help cities prepare for future cloudbursts, the
SBCCOG developed “blue spot” (depression or
sinks in the landscape) maps that show flood-
Figure 8: Critical Facilities in or near Flood Zone
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prone areas during sudden rainstorms and identify structures at risk by calculating how much
rainfall is needed to make each bluespot fill up during a cloudburst. Buildings located in a
bluespot that fill up quickly are at greater risk than buildings in a bluespot that fills up slowly.
For planners and developers, bluespot maps can be used to make informed decisions about where
not to build or where development should be accompanied by special landscape architecture. In
areas that are already developed, bluespot maps can be used to prioritize areas for better climate-
proofing.
Several assumptions and limitations affect the precision and certainty of the model results. For
example, the model does not consider a building’s elevation within a blue spot, nor does it
consider diversion of surface runoff through drainage ditches, tubes, or other channels. In
addition, it is assumed that in a cloudburst event, evaporation and soil infiltration is close to zero
but that the sewer system has a capacity to absorb approximately 40 mm of rainfall per day.
Figure 9 maps bluespots by their fill-up value 3, and highlights buildings that fall within a
bluespot that would need less than 5 inches to fill up -- or reach its “pour point”. The model
identified one building at risk of flooding during a 5-inch cloudburst. (Maps noting the location
of these buildings can be found in Appendix B.)
3 After adding an additional 40mm to account for the sewer system capacity
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Figure 9: Areas at Risk of Flooding in a Cloudburst
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Sea Level Rise Risk
Using data prepared by Unites States Geological Survey (USGS) from the Our Coast Our Future
(OCOF), the SBCCOG considered the following sea level rise scenarios (including projected
changes in shoreline extent, cliff position and flood extent 4) to assess the potential impact of sea
level rise on facilities, infrastructure, and residences (parcels) in the City of RPV:
• 0.75 m (2.46 ft)
• 1.25 m (4.1 ft)
• 1.75 m (5.7 ft)
• 2.00 m (6.6 ft)
Cliff Position
Cliff position projections are based on field observations including historical cliff retreat rate,
nearshore slope, coastal cliff height, and mean annual wave power.23 The cliff position
projections shown in Figure 10 assume that current coastal armoring will be maintained and
100% effective at stopping future cliff erosion (“Hold the Line”). Maps for each segment of the
City’s coastline can be found in Appendix C. The SBCCOG overlaid cliff projections with land
parcels, roads and facilities to assess the potential risk associated with each sea level rise
scenario (Table 6).
4 100-year storm events were considered for flood extent projections
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Figure 10: Cliff Position Projections, RPV
Table 6: Risk Assessment for Cliff Erosion
Parcels Critical Facilities
Sea Level
Rise
Scenario
(meters)
Total Residential Road
(feet)
Water
Main
(ft)
Outfall Water
Facility
Gov.
Facility
75 m 103 43 2706 6227 3 0 0
125 m 110 46 4181 6974 3 0 1
175 m 113 49 5375 8918 3 0 1
200 m 117 52 6118 8918 3 1 1
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Inundation
The Hazard Exposure Reporting and Analytics (HERA) tool estimates the economic assets in
areas flooded under different sea level and storm scenarios. The estimated value of parcels
exposed to sea level rise inundation is listed in Table 7.
Table 7: Value of Parcels Exposed
Social Vulnerability
Social vulnerability is a function of diverse demographic and socio-economic factors that
influence a community’s sensitivity to climate change. The SBCCOG utilized The Trust for
Public Land (TPL) Climate-Smart Cities™ Tool to map potential hotspots and flood prone areas
and overlaid those areas of heightened exposure with TPL’s Climate Equity Priority layer, which
identifies areas with greater numbers of underserved and disadvantaged populations (sensitive
populations). This overlay analysis helps identify parcels most at risk to heat and flood events
within the City.
Heat Risk
Utilizing land surface temperature (LST) data, Figure 11 identifies urban heat island hotspots
within the City with elevated daytime LST averaging at least 1.25 degrees Fahrenheit above the
Sea Level
Rise
Scenario
(meters)
Value of exposed
parcel ($)24
75m +
100-yr storm
$26,080,953
125m + 100-
yr storm
$29,289,909
175m + 100-
yr storm
$40,115,575
200m + 100-
yr storm
$45,897,058
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mean daily temperature during August. The results were derived from Landsat satellite data,
which provides a 30m downscaled average land surface temperature over a 16-day period.
Figure 11: City of RPV Hostpot and Average Temperature
To determine heat
risk, the SBCCOG
overlaid the Climate
Equity Layer
(sensitivity) with the
Cool Priority layer
(hazard). The Cool
Priority layer
identifies areas where
urban heat island
effect is greatest. The
Climate Equity
Priority layer
highlights areas
where there are
greater percent of
sensitive populations.
However, there are no
parcels that fall within
a climate equity
priority and a cool
priority area.
While there is a significant population over the age of 65, a group that tends to be more sensitive
to extreme heat—this potential vulnerability is countered by high adaptive capacity evidenced by
high incomes, education and access to air conditioning. Therefore, the heat risk for residents
within the City is low.
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Flood Risk
In addition to identifying areas of greatest risk to extreme heat, the SBCCOG utilized the TPL
Climate Smart Cities tool to query parcels that were in a flood prone area and a climate equity
priority area to identify parcels with the greatest flood risk (Figure 12). The flood prone area
layer identifies areas within a 100-yr and 500-yr flood zone based on 2015 Flood Advisory
Zones developed by FEMA.
There is only 1
parcel 5 in the City
that intersects a
100-yr flood zone
(highlighted in
blue, Figure 12).
There were no
parcels in the City
that fell within both
a flood prone and
climate equity
priority area,
indicating low
flood risk to RPV
residents.
5 Assessor ID (APN): 7546-022-010
Figure 12: City of RPV Flood Prone Area
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Green Infrastructure
Green infrastructure is an
approach to water
management that protects,
restores, or mimics the
natural water cycle. Some
cities are investing in green
infrastructure technology,
including permeable
pavement, to adapt to increasingly frequent flood events. In addition to buffering climate
impacts, green infrastructure enhances social equity by building social capital, improving health
outcomes, and increasing economic opportunities.
The SBCCOG utilized the TPL Climate
Smart Cities tool to query parcels that
had 70% or greater impervious surface
and were a designated overall absorb
priority area to identify parcels with the
greatest potential urban, localized flood
risk from extreme precipitation
(highlighted in blue, Figure 13). The
overall absorb priority layer 6 identifies
areas where the potential for
groundwater infiltration projects from
stormwater is highest.
6 The model was created using a weighted overlay of the following layers: Riparian areas (5%); Flood Prone areas (5%); Permeable Soils (25%);
Wetland Areas (5%); Groundwater Basins (30%); Historic Channels (10%); and Slope (20%).
Figure 13: City of RPV Green Infrastructure
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While the Climate Equity Priority map layer developed by the TPL offers a good snapshot of
areas within the City that may have heightened sensitivity to climate impacts, the indicators that
were used in the construction of the layer 7 do not encompass all sensitive groups. For example,
while the TPL layer did not consider any parcels within the City of RPV to be a climate equity
priority, there are a large percentage of the City’s population that are over the age of 65, an
indicator of sensitivity to extreme heat. Therefore, the SBCCOG, with the help of the City,
selected and mapped additional indicators of social vulnerability at the block-group 8 level. These
supplementary social vulnerability indicators are described and mapped in the Social
Vulnerability Map Atlas (Appendix A).
Conclusion, Recommendations, and Next Steps
The City has taken steps to prepare for a changing climate with this preliminary vulnerability
assessment that identifies areas with the highest risk, but deeper understanding and planning
along with financial and human resources will be needed to fully address these changes.
Going forward, the results of this Vulnerability Assessment can be used to either:
1) Conduct a more detailed, site-specific risk analysis. For example, the city could identify
attributes of buildings located in Bluespots such as building elevation, or whether a building
has a basement, to determine whether flood-protection measures should be considered, or
2) Target adaptation-related investments or risk-mitigating activities.
Due to the City’s location on the Palos Verdes Peninsula, RPV is uniquely vulnerable to wildfire
events. The majority of the Peninsula is designated a very high wildfire threat. In addition, a
large percent of the population is over the age of 65. People over the age of 65 are often less
mobile, which can impede their ability to quickly evacuate in an emergency event. Lastly, there
are only a few roads that can serve as evacuation routes down the Peninsula.
7 People of color, low income population, less than high school education, linguistic isolation, population under 5, population over 64,
unemployment, asthma, low birth weight, and housing cost burden,
8 Census tracts are subdivisions of counties for which the Census collects statistical data.
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One option to address these issues is the establishment of a multi-city task force or working
group which would develop strategies to reduce the risk of wildfire on the Peninsula. In addition
to the participation of city planners, emergency service officers, and fire departments, this task
force could include other agencies such as the Palos Verdes Land Conservancy, which has
knowledge on the flammability of different vegetation types, as well as representatives from Cal-
fire and electric utilities. This task force would focus on devising risk-mitigating activities that
would reduce the likelihood of a fire spark and speed at which fire travels, as well as devise
flexible and actionable evacuation plans. For example, one strategy could include contraflow
lane reversals that allow both lanes to be directed down the Peninsula for evacuation purposes.
In addition to wildfire events, the City of RPV is also vulnerable to cliff erosion. Cliff erosion
poses a significant threat to many residential properties that line the cliff’s edge as well as to
critical habitat. Given the complexity of this risk, it is recommended that cities work with
planners, affected property owners, scientific experts (USC Sea Grant, USGS), land managers,
and insurance companies to develop adaptive pathways that would activate adaptive strategies
(such as coastal retreat) at certain pre-determined thresholds of cliff erosion.
In 2019, the SBCCOG adopted its own Sub-regional Climate Adaptation Plan, which synthesizes
the climate risks associated with regional sectors including water, energy, coastal management,
biodiversity, and migration. The SBCCOG, will support the City of RPV over the coming years
in developing and selecting city-specific adaptation strategies that will help mitigate local risk to
residents and critical infrastructure from climate stressors identified in this vulnerability
assessment.
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Appendix A: Social Vulnerability Map Atlas
Understanding vulnerability factors and the populations affected is critical for crafting climate
change adaptation policies and disaster response strategies. This understanding is also important
to achieving climate justice, which is a concept that no group of people should disproportionately
bear the burden of climate impacts or the costs of adaptation. The following section provides a
social vulnerability map atlas for the City of RPV utilizing American Community Survey Data
(2017 5-yr estimates).
Outdoor Workers
Outdoor workers are more susceptible to heat stress, which can cause a decrease in productivity
and induce health risks such as dehydration, heat stroke, and long-term damage to major organs
and physiological functions.
Strenuous working
conditions, language barriers,
exposure to chemicals, and
limited capacity to protect
their rights influence health
outcomes exacerbated by
climate change. Outdoor
occupations most at risk of
heat stroke include
construction, refining,
surface mining, hazardous
waste site activities, and
agriculture.25 For this
assessment, outdoor workers
are represented by the
percent of the population
working in construction.
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Elderly Living Alone
Several factors contribute to the
vulnerability of elderly, people
aged 65 and older, living alone
including:
• Impaired muscle
strength, coordination,
cognitive ability, the
immune system, and the
regulation of body
temperature
(thermoregulation)26
• Pre-existing health
conditions which can
increase susceptibility to
more severe
consequences of climate
change 27
• Limited mobility
(inability to evacuate)
may increase risk of
climate-related
impacts.28
• Social isolation or dependent of care populations can be impacted more by heat waves
and extreme weather events.29
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Children Under the Age of 5
Children under 5 years old are especially vulnerable to the health impacts of climate change.
Due to physiological
and developmental
factors, children are
disproportionately
impacted from the
effects of heat waves,
air pollution, infectious
illnesses, and trauma
resulting from climate
change.30
Children are dependent
on their caregivers for
response to extreme
weather events such as
wildfires and floods.
Children, infants, and
pregnant women are
vulnerable to increased
heat exposure because
they may not be able to
efficiently
thermoregulate. 31
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Disabled Population
Disabled populations are defined in this assessment as a person with a physical or mental
disability.9
Climate change is expected to
cause increased hardship for
persons with physical
disabilities due to limited
resources and mobility during
the phases of evacuation,
response, and recovery, and
will likely affect the severity
and incidence of mental
disabilities and mental health
problems.32
Persons with a physical
disability have been found to
be 1.22 times more likely to
be unprepared for an
emergency.33
Increasing heat exposure can
also worsen the clinical
condition of people with pre-
existing mental health
problems. There are direct physiological effects of heat strain that can reduce the ability to work
at full capacity and carry out daily activities, which can impact mental health as well as
livelihood.34 Dementia is a risk factor for hospitalizations and death during heat waves. 35
9 As defined by the US Census, a person with a physical disability has serious difficulty walking or climbing stairs. A person with a mental
disability has a learning, intellectual or developmental disability; Alzheimer’s disease, senility, dementia, or some other mental or emotional
condition that seriously interferes with daily activity.
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Linguistic Isolation
Climate change and increasing temperatures pose a serious public health concern for people who
are linguistically isolated.
According to the U.S.
Census, a household is
linguistically isolated
when all persons 14 years
of age or older speak a
language other than
English and no one speaks
English very well.
Linguistic isolation may
hinder protective
behaviors during extreme
weather and disasters by
limiting access to or
understanding of health
warnings.
A study of extreme heat
found that people who
live in linguistically
isolated households were
at increased risk of
extreme heat-related health problems, and they are more prone to making heat distress calls to
911.36 The study also found that isolation led to structural and financial barriers to medical care,
which in turn disrupted management of chronic conditions.37
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Population Lacking Health Insurance
Insurance coverage is a key determinant of timely access and utilization of health services, which
is a fundamental pathway to improved health outcomes.
Excessive heat
exposure, elevated
levels of air
pollutants, and
extreme weather
conditions such as
flooding are
expected to cause
direct and indirect
health impacts,
particularly for
vulnerable
populations with
limited or no access
to health services.
A national
systematic review
in 2010 found that
patients who were
uninsured were less
likely to receive
critical care
services than those with insurance.38
Another study demonstrated increased risk of mortality among the uninsured compared with the
insured and estimated 44,789 annual deaths among Americans aged 18-54 associated with lack
of health insurance. 39
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Rent Burdened Population
Rent-burdened populations are measured by the percent of the population spending over 50% of
their income on housing.40
Rent-burdened families
have less savings and
are often not in a
financial position to pay
associated costs of
preparation for and
recovery from natural
disasters.
While 97% of
homeowners purchase
homeowner’s
insurance, it is
estimated that only 37%
of renters buy renters
insurance, 41 putting
rent-burdened
populations at risk of
losing all their
household and personal
items. In addition, rent-
burdened populations
have a greater risk of being displaced post-disaster.
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Educational Attainment
There are several reasons to expect that illiteracy and educational deficiency (measured by the
percent of population without a high-school degree) can increase vulnerability to climate change
related risks.
Better education typically
implies better access to
relevant information,
such as early warnings
for severe weather
events.42
There is evidence that
education also enhances
cognitive skills and the
willingness to change
risky behavior while at
the same time extending
the personal planning
horizon, contributing to
the likelihood an
individual will take steps
to plan for and adapt to
both climate shocks as
well as slow-onset
impacts.43
Furthermore, research findings support that education leads to better health and higher income at
the individual and household level, which contributes to the capacity of an individual to better
cope or adapt to the impacts of climate change.44
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Appendix B: Bluespot Analysis—Buildings at Risk
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Appendix C: Cliff Erosion Along RPV Coastline
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